In August, the focus was on US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole business gathering on August 26, and he was blunt. To hose down talk of interest rate cuts in 2023, he said the Fed was focused on bringing US inflation down to 2% (from 8.5% now), even at the risk of recession.
He said this will “take some time”, will likely require a “sustained period of below trend economic growth”, and households should expect “some pain” in the months ahead. The S&P500 share index promptly fell 3.4% and bond yields rose. Economists expect the US central bank will continue lifting rates each month for the remainder of 2022.
In Australia, economic conditions are less gloomy. Australia’s trade surplus was a record $136.4 billion in 2022-23. Unemployment fell to 3.4% in July while wages growth rose to an annual rate of 2.6% in the year to June, the strongest in 8 years but well below inflation. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose slightly in September to a still depressed 85.0 points while the NAB business confidence index jumped to +6.9 points in July, well above the long-term average of +5.4 points. Half-way through the June half-year reporting season, CommSec reports ASX200 company profits increased 56% in aggregate while dividends are 6% lower on a year earlier.
The Aussie dollar fell more than one cent over the month to close around US68.5c. Aussie shares bucked the global trend, finishing steady over the month.
If you wish to speak to an adviser about any information in relation to our articles, please get in contact via email.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
June was a big month in an eventful year for the local and global economy, with inflation and interest rates continuing to dominate. The US Federal Reserve lifted official rates by 0.75% to a target range of 1.50-1.75% to combat surging inflation of 8.6% in the year to May, stoking fears of a US recession.
Australia faces similar but less acute challenges. With inflation sitting at 5.1%, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.5% to 0.85% in June and Governor Philip Lowe hinted at more to come in July, which it did in the form of a further rate hike to bring the cash rate to 1.35%. Many economic analysts have predicted further rate rises to curb inflation with an expected cash rate to be somewhere in the three’s come Christmas time.
The Australian economy is still growing relatively strongly at an annual rate of 3.3%. Retail trade rose 10.4% in the year to May on the back of low unemployment and high household savings. Household wealth rose to a record high of $574,807 in the year to March, but since then there has been a global sell-off in shares, a slowdown in the Australian housing market and cost of living pressures are mounting.
Australia’s national average petrol price rose to 211.9c a litre in June, the second highest on record, on the back of a surge in global oil prices. Brent Crude rose almost 45% over the past year as the war in Ukraine disrupts supply. Despite a late bounce in shares, the ASX200 fell 9.6% in the year to June, while US shares were down more than 12%. The Aussie dollar lost ground over the financial year to finish below US69c.
If you wish to speak to an adviser about any information in relation to our articles, please get in contact via email.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Rising interest rates are almost always portrayed as bad news, by the media and by politicians of all persuasions. But a rise in rates cuts both ways.
Higher interest rates are a worry for people with home loans and borrowers generally. But they are good news for older Australians who depend on income from bank deposits and young people trying to save for a deposit on their first home.
Rising interest rates are also a sign of a growing economy, which creates jobs and provides the income people need to pay the mortgage and other bills. By lifting interest rates, the Reserve Bank hopes to keep a lid on inflation and rising prices. Yes, it’s complicated.
How high will rates go?
In early May, the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate for the first time since November 2010, from its historic low of 0.1 per cent. The reason the cash rate is watched so closely is that it flows through to mortgages and other lending rates in the economy.
To tackle the rising cost of living, the Reserve Bank expects to lift the cash rate further, to around 2.5 per cent.i Inflation is currently running at 5.1 per cent, which means annual wages growth of 2.4 per cent is not keeping pace with rising prices.ii
So what does this mean for household budgets?
Mortgage rates on the rise
The people most affected by rising rates are likely those who recently bought their first home. In a double whammy, after several years of booming house prices the size of the average mortgage has also increased.
According to CoreLogic, even though price growth is slowing, the median home value rose 16.7 per cent nationally in the year to April to $748,635. Prices are higher in Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne.
CoreLogic estimates a 1 per cent rise would add $486 a month to repayments on the median new home loan in Sydney, and an additional $1,006 a month for a 2 per cent rise.
While the big four banks are not obliged to pass on the cash rate changes, in May they passed on the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 per cent increase in the cash rate in full to their standard variable mortgage rates which range from 4.6 to 4.8 per cent. The lowest standard variable rates from smaller lenders are below 2 per cent.
Still, it’s believed most homeowners should be able to absorb a 2 per cent rise in their repayments.iii
The financial regulator, APRA now insists all lenders apply three percentage points on top of their headline borrowing rate, as a stress test on the amount you can borrow (up from 2.5 per cent prior to October 2021).iv
Rate rise action plan
Whatever your circumstances, the shift from a low interest rate, low inflation economic environment to rising rates and inflation is a signal that it’s time to revisit some of your financial assumptions.
The first thing you need to do is update your budget to factor in higher loan repayments and the rising cost of essential items such as food, fuel, power, childcare, health and insurances. You could then look for easy cuts from your non-essential spending on things like regular takeaways, eating out and streaming services.
If you have a home loan, then potentially the biggest saving involves absolutely no sacrifice to your lifestyle. Simply pick up the phone and ask your lender to give you a better deal. Banks all offer lower rates to new customers than they do to existing customers, but you can often negotiate a lower rate simply by asking.
If your bank won’t budge, then consider switching lenders. Just the mention of switching can often land you a better rate with your existing lender.
The challenge for savers
Older Australians and young savers face a tougher task. Bank savings rates are generally non-negotiable, but it does pay to shop around.
The silver lining is that many people will also see increased interest rates on their savings accounts as the cash rate increases. By mid-May only three of the big four banks had increased rates for savings accounts. Several lenders also announced increased rates for term deposits of up to 0.6 per cent.v
High interest rates traditionally put a dampener on returns from shares and property, so commentators are warning investors to prepare for lower returns from these investments and superannuation.
That makes it more important than ever to ensure you are getting the best return on your savings and not paying more than necessary on your loans. If you would like to discuss a budgeting and savings plan, give us a call on 03 5120 1400.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
With all eyes on the Federal Budget and balancing the nation’s books, it’s a good time to review your personal balance sheet. If it’s not as healthy as you would like, perhaps it’s time to do a little budget repair of your own.
Just as governments need to set policy objectives and budget for future spending commitments, households need to feel confident they can meet their current and future financial commitments.
So no matter how much you earn, it’s always a good strategy to check that your spending doesn’t exceed your income. It’s also important to think about how much you need to save today to pay for all the things you want to achieve in the future.
Before we look more closely at your personal finances, it’s worth understanding how you may be affected by the big picture.
Cost of living pressures
The big economic issues for everyone right now, from the federal government and the Reserve Bank to businesses and households, are inflation and interest rates.
While economists talk about inflation, individuals experience this as an increase in their cost of living. Inflation increased by 3.5% in the year to December, with the price of fuel and the cost of buying a new home the biggest contributors. Prices of food, transport, health and insurance are also rising.i
Rising prices also put pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates to dampen demand. Lenders respond by increasing interest rates on mortgages and other loan products. While the Reserve Bank has indicated it is unlikely to lift rates before late 2022, homeowners and investors need to be prepared for an inevitable increase in mortgage repayments.
While higher prices are not a major concern if your income is growing faster than inflation, annual wages growth is lagging inflation at just 2.3 per cent.ii In other words, unless you’re lucky enough to secure a big wage rise your finances could be going backwards in real (after inflation) terms.
Given these challenges, what can you do to get ahead?
Start at the beginning
Money may not buy you happiness, but having enough to afford the life you want to lead certainly helps. So how much is enough?
A recent survey by Finder found 25 per cent of Australians wouldn’t feel affluent unless they earned at least $500,000 a year.iii Not only is this almost nine times the average income of around $60,000, many of today’s rich listers started out with far less.iv
There’s nothing wrong with dreaming big but you are more likely to achieve your goals by being realistic and to start with, making the most of what you already have.
Before you can build wealth, you need to understand what’s coming in, where your money’s going and where you could make savings, by following these four steps:
Add up your annual income from wages, investments and government benefits.
Add up your spending on essential living expenses including mortgage or rent, groceries, utilities, transport and insurances; and discretionary spending on the fun stuff like clothes, dining out, entertainment and holidays. If you don’t have receipts, try tracking your spending over three months or so using one of the many free online budgeting apps.
Subtract your total spending in step 2 from your total income in step 1. If you spend more than you earn or barely break even, then look for areas where you could save. Things like cutting back on takeaways, impulse spending online, and streaming services you rarely use. Ring your mortgage lender to negotiate a better interest rate and when insurances come up for renewal, shop around.
Draw up a budget to track your spending and put a savings plan in place to achieve your goals. Even a simple plan will help with discipline and make regular saving automatic.
Putting it all together
Some of the most popular budget strategies take a bucket approach, with separate money buckets for needs, wants and savings.v Most aim to set aside around 20 per cent of your income as savings and paying yourself first by setting up regular debits to a savings account. If you have debts or don’t have an emergency fund, then these should be attended to before you direct savings to investments or other goals.
To be successful, a budget needs to be one you can stick to, tailored to your personal goals and financial situation. If you would like us to help plan your personal budget strategy, get in touch with Joe Auciello via email: j.auciello@rgmgroup.com.au or 03 5120 1400.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
