As 2022 drew to a close, investors remained focused on inflation, interest rates and recession worries.
The ASX200 index declined in December after two months of gains, ending a challenging year showing an overall loss through 2022 of over 7%.
Click the video below to view our January update.
Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.
When it comes to career or life goals, a crucial element often missing from the discussion is that of personal accountability. Accountability is fundamental to effective government and successful business, but we often neglect it in regards to our own ambitions. Practicing personal accountability isn’t easy, but if you embrace it, the effect can be transformative.
A critical first step in any accountability process is transparency. This means being honest about your prior successes and failures. You can then use what you’ve learned from them to frame your strategy going forward.
Often what stops us from being honest with ourselves is an inability to accept responsibility for our own contribution to our successes or failures. This in turn can often result in a blame mentality. In every person’s life there is a mixture of internal and external obstacles that prevent us from getting what we want. The problem with always blaming what’s outside of us, is that we lose sight of what we can control. It reduces our power. The outcome can be inertia. To blame is to tread water. To be accountable is to build a raft.
Indecision, procrastination and laziness are three common factors that get in the way of us achieving our goals. So how do we show some accountability and mitigate these habits? The answer is to put some skin in the game – to raise the stakes.
Let’s take the gym as an example. Your building has a free one for the tenants, but you never use it. Maybe it’s because it’s not very well equipped, but you’re also not really losing anything if you don’t go. But say the gym charges a fee. That might mean it’s better resourced, sure, but you’re also getting charged every week. Nobody wants to waste money so you go. You’ve got skin in the game.
Let’s extend the metaphor. You might decide to pay a bit more and join a class, or even splash out and get a personal trainer. Now you’ve really invested, because not only are you giving up your hard-earned cash, but you’ve got someone who will be disappointed in you if you don’t make the session. Someone else to hold you accountable.
When a task is set for you by someone else, the stakes are naturally higher because you’re accountable to them. It’s much harder to let someone else down, than it is yourself. This is why it is important to engage an ally, when working towards your goals. And to be honest, the more the better.
Allies can sort fact from fiction, give constructive feedback and encourage you when you’re feeling flat. And it is a lot harder to veer off course when you have a crowd cheering you on.
Practicing accountability becomes easier when you have in place a good set of processes. That’s why we’ve come up with this four-step process.
1. Make sure your goals are concrete. This means being specific about what they are and what they’re not. You can’t kick a goal if you don’t know where the goal posts are.
2. Record your progress. Ask any business leader, and they’ll tell you accountability requires accurate reporting. This is where transparency and diligence come in. Make sure you keep records of your successes and failures, the tasks you did, the time they took, and what they cost. Then let this frame your strategy going forward, including incremental deadlines.
3. Invest and put some more skin the game. This means giving up something that has currency to you in order to compel you to keep going. There needs to be an outcome, a material loss, that comes from not reaching your deadlines.
4. Finally, engage an ally. This can be a mentor or a friend. Someone who checks in with you and encourages you but can also give constructive criticism.
If you’ve got big dreams and need some help making them financially viable, come talk to us. We can help make a plan, and ensure you stay accountable each step of the way.
As Australia’s system of compulsory superannuation celebrated its 30th anniversary in July, this is a good time to take a closer look at one of super’s biggest success stories – the number of people deciding to take control of their retirement savings with a self-managed super fund (SMSF).
There are now almost 607,000 SMSFs worth a combined $894 million, with 1.1 million members.
While one of the benefits of running your own fund is the flexibility to chart your own course, concerns have been raised over the years that SMSFs are too heavily invested in cash and shares and not as well diversified as large public funds. The latest figures show these concerns are largely unfounded.
SMSF administrator, SuperConcepts recently surveyed 4,500 funds to find out how SMSF trustees invest and identify any emerging trends.i They also wanted to see how SMSFs compare with large APRA-regulated funds including – industry, retail, public sector and corporate funds – in terms of their investments.
The table below shows the overall asset breakdown as at 31 March 2022.
| Asset type | SMSF % | APRA fund % |
| Cash and short-term deposits | 12.2 | 9.1 |
| Australian fixed interest | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| International fixed interest | 2.1 | 7.9 |
| Australian shares | 40.0 | 28.5 |
| International shares | 16.4 | 27.0 |
| Property | 16.0 | 8.5 |
| Other (incl. infrastructure, cryptocurrency, commodities and collectables) | 4.9 | 9.0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 |
Source: SuperConcepts
Several differences stand out:
At first glance, these differences conform to the stereotype of SMSFs being too dependent on cash, Australian shares and property.
However, the preference for cash may come down to a higher proportion of SMSF members in pension phase (45 per cent of SMSFs are partly or fully in pension phase according to the ATO). The more members a fund has in pension phase, the more cash and liquid investments it needs to cover benefit payments.
Also, the differences are not so stark when you group assets. For instance, cash and fixed interest combined amount to 22.7 per cent for SMSFs and 27.0 per cent for APRA funds. Similarly, local and international shares (56.4 per cent for SMSFs, 55.5 per cent for APRA funds) and property and other (20.9 per cent vs 17.5 per cent ).
It’s likely that the differences within these broad asset groupings are driven by access to different markets, and SMSF trustees being more comfortable picking investments they know such as local shares and property.
What’s more, while big funds can invest directly in large infrastructure projects with steady capital appreciation and reliable income streams, SMSF investors may be pursuing a similar strategy but with real property instead.
Whether it’s the familiarity factor or ease of access, the top 10 investments by value held by SMSFs in the SuperConcepts survey were all Australian shares. As you might expect, the major banks dominate the top 10, along with market heavyweights BHP, CSL and Telstra.
Another thing the top 10 have in common, apart from being household names and easy to access, is dividends. Just as SMSFs in retirement phase hold higher levels of cash to fund their daily income needs, high dividend paying shares are prized for their regular income stream.
While SMSFs hold large sums in direct Australian shares, diversification improves markedly when you add investments in Australian and international shares held via ETFs and managed funds.
The SuperConcepts survey found almost one third of SMSF investments by value are held in pooled investments. The highest usage is for international shares and fixed interest, where 75 per cent of exposure is via ETFs and managed funds.
As it’s still relatively difficult to access direct investments in international shares, it’s not surprising that global share funds account for eight of the top 10 ETFs and managed funds.
This latest research shows that the diversification of SMSF investment portfolios is broadly comparable to the big super funds. After 30 years of growth and a new generation taking control of their investments, the SMSF sector has well and truly come of age.
If you would like to discuss your SMSF’s investment strategy or you are thinking of setting up your own fund, give us a call.
Small businesses across the country will be looking for ways to reduce costs amid cost of living and rising price pressures.
Economic challenges are expected to continue into the 2024 financial year, from inflation and supply chain lags to higher interest rates and reduced consumer spending.
Businesses will need to keep a close eye on their income and expenses to maintain positive cashflow, Small Business Loans Australia founder, Alon Rajic says.
“As Australian businesses continue to face the repercussions of the last two years, a significant proportion will have challenges, particularly without a savings buffer or strategy to help meet their expenses,” said Rajic.
Small Business Loans Australia research set out to find out if fast-rising interest rates and inflation would impact small business’ ability and motivation to invest in themselves. Specifically, more than a quarter (29 percent) of respondents had not planned to invest in their business at all this financial year.
Three quarters of respondents (76 percent) admit their cashflow will be impacted by interest rate rises and inflation over the next year, it also found.
Specifically, 30 percent believe their cashflow will be impacted because it will be harder to collect customer payments, while 26 percent say it will be harder to attract sales. A further 20 percent say both issues will impact cashflow.
But before you take any extreme actions like reducing staff hours or letting workers go, here are 11 straightforward tips to begin minimising business costs today.
Take a systematic approach
The best starting place is to consider your key cost centres, such as purchasing, sales, finance, and administration, for example.
Go over your profit and loss statement for the past 12 months and rank your expenses from highest to lowest and comb through each one in search of cost saving potential.
Make sure you go back and look over your budgets and forecasts and see how you’re tracking.
Also, benchmark your business against industry standards. For example, your waste levels could be higher than the industry average, or others in your industry could be introducing sustainable business measures, which could be bringing them savings.
Uncover hidden costs
Costs aren’t always easy to spot in business, but they can add up quickly.
Hidden costs could be the rising cost of insurance policies, unused subscriptions, permits and industry memberships you pay each month even though you never enjoy any of the perks they offer.
Sit down and go through your bank account and track the expenses to see where you can make savings or do without.
Also, be sure to double check supplier invoices for any overcharging, double billing or discounts that haven’t been applied.
Sell off unwanted equipment
If you’re no longer using tools and equipment, don’t let them sit in the garage or stockroom gathering dust. Conduct an audit and convert what you can back into cash wherever appropriate.
Selling used or unwanted items brings in some extra cash, you’ll be able to put that money back into keeping the business running.
Negotiate with suppliers
Taking half a day out to shop around for lower prices could end up making you more money than you realise.
Call your bank and see if they will offer you a better deal on your business loans, and shop around energy providers to see how you might reduce your utilities overheads.
Start with your biggest expenses and work your way down the list.
Separate personal and business expenses
Put simply: don’t make personal purchases from the business credit card.
Separating out your expenses will mean you can account for them easily and it’s a great way to make sure you don’t miss out on tax deductions.
It can also make sure you aren’t mistakenly claiming for personal expenses, which will be frowned upon by the Australian Taxation Office.
Reduce spending
After all, a penny saved is a penny earned.
And that means it’s much easier to hold onto the cash you already have.
Set a budget, and follow it, and analyse where your money is being spent and where you can cut costs.
Even simple things like packing your lunch and purchasing a coffee
machine for the office can add up over time — that five dollars a day for takeaway coffee will wind up being around $1,300 over the course of a whole year.
Conduct a tech audit
Technology costs can add up, but if you’ve implemented tech a year ago that you’re no longer using, it can be a huge waste.
Go through your licenses and subscriptions that you don’t need or use to see what you can be culled.
It may be that you’re also haemorrhaging money due to inefficiencies in your systems — for example, if you’re wasting time and resources on manual data transfers between multiple software solutions.
A business management platform should include a broad variety of built-in features, allowing you and your staff to accomplish all your core business processes, such as accounting, payroll, inventory management and more.
Improve staff productivity
Employees not pulling their weight in the business can reduce efficiency and become a costly liability.
Assessing and improving staff performance can be a great way to reduce costs before resorting to reducing staff hours.
Set ambitious but achievable goals your staff can get behind and consider what business management tools you might need to help track productivity and performance.
Realign marketing budgets with performance
The sole purpose of marketing is to drive interest in your business’ products and services.
When times are tough, taking a close look at your marketing performance should be a regular occurrence to determine whether you’re getting value for money.
For instance, doubling down on your customer service may drive word of mouth outcomes that effectively boost the effectiveness of other marketing activities, or a targeted letter could deliver a new favourite customer.
Whether your analysis results in less spend or more, auditing your marketing budgets will help you gain a better understanding of where and when sales are coming in, and where your money is spent.
Reduce your space
Do you really need that shopfront or office space anymore?
We all learnt the virtues of running a virtual business over the past few years, so if you’re still leasing an office space, now could be the time to consider whether there are more cost-effective alternatives.
Seek out an expert
If you’re finding it challenging to cut costs, consider hiring an expert to suggest other cost reduction strategies.
The right advisor can help you audit your existing systems and processes, business and sales strategies, and make suggestions on how to sustain and grow your operations.
Don’t leave the hard decisions until too late. If you’re facing challenges as a result of the current high-cost environment, now’s the time to get active.
Source: MYOB November 2022
Reproduced with the permission of MYOB. This article by Nina Hendy was originally published at myob.com
Important:
This provides general information and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important to consider your particular circumstances before deciding what’s right for you. Although the information is from sources considered reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. You should not rely upon it and should seek qualified advice before making any investment decision. Except where liability under any statute cannot be excluded, we do not accept any liability (whether under contract, tort or otherwise) for any resulting loss or damage of the reader or any other person.
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.
Rising inflation brings about concern for many, but Vanguard’s time-tested investment philosophy—and a long-term focus—can help any investor navigate choppy waters.
Inflation happens when prices rise and purchasing power decreases. This can be the result of a simultaneous high demand for and low supply of goods and services. Consumers have money and want to spend it, but since not enough goods are being produced, prices move skyward.
Inflation has been historically low for most of the last 40 years, so the level of inflation we’re experiencing now is unsettling. When inflation increases, interest rates tend to rise, which can cause both bond and share prices to fluctuate. This can be especially challenging for companies as they plan capital expenditures, budgets, and payrolls. For many investors, this could be their first experience with inflation and they may be wondering how to proceed.
In this inflationary environment, as with any period of high uncertainty, investors should reflect on their goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. If you determine that you need to make a change after that analysis, you should consider it carefully before making any sweeping changes (such as switching all your investments to cash). It’s important to put what’s going on into perspective and decide if it truly warrants an adjustment to your portfolio. Oftentimes, a moderate change will suffice. A diversified portfolio will give you the best chance at increasing purchasing power over the long run.
If you don’t think your portfolio needs any modifications but you still want to hedge against inflation risk, you can make spending adjustments. Reducing spending during periods of high inflation can help make your investments last, but won’t feel like a permanent change; you can always increase, decrease, or maintain your spending level, depending on your situation and the market environment.
Don’t make adjustments to your portfolio in haste. It’s crucial that you take time to think about what makes the most sense for you and your long-term needs. Even if your risk tolerance has changed, your asset allocation shouldn’t change that much. We also discourage spontaneous changes based on hearsay; just because someone on the news or online makes a recommendation doesn’t mean it’s right for your portfolio.
Instead of veering to avoid bumps in the road, we recommend you stay the course and focus on your long-term goals – your future will thank you for it.
Speak to us today if you would like to discuss how inflation may impact your portfolio.
Source: Vanguard
Reproduced with permission of Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd
Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 / AFS Licence 227263) is the product issuer. We have not taken yours and your clients’ circumstances into account when preparing this material so it may not be applicable to the particular situation you are considering. You should consider your circumstances and our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Prospectus before making any investment decision. You can access our PDS or Prospectus online or by calling us. This material was prepared in good faith and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.
© 2022 Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.
Important:
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.
In his first Budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ emphasised the three Rs – responsible budget repair and restrained spending, right for the times.
For good measure, resilience also got a mention with spending targeted at building a more modern economy to deal with the challenges ahead.
This is the first budget from a federal Labor government in almost a decade, barely five months since Labor was elected and seven months since the Coalition’s pre-election budget in March, so it was bound to be a little different. The Treasurer used the opportunity to update the shifting economic sands and reset spending priorities to align with the new government’s policy agenda.
For Australians wondering what the Albanese Labor government will mean for them and their family, this is the first piece of a puzzle that will be completed over the next three years.
The Labor government has inherited an improving bottom line, with the deficit for 2022-23 expected to come in at $36.9 billion, an improvement of more than $40 billion on the pre-election forecast. This was due to high commodity prices for our exports and higher tax receipts from a strong labour market and robust corporate profits.
The deficits of $224.7 billion previously forecast for the next four years have shrunk to $182 billion. The difference of around $40 billion will go towards funding the government’s election promises and budget repair.
Labor has also found $22 billion in savings by cancelling or redirecting programs planned by the previous Coalition government, and a further $3.6 billion in cuts to external consultants, marketing, travel and legal expenses. Savings will also come from clamping down on tax avoidance by individuals and foreign corporations.
But as the Treasurer is fond of saying, storm clouds are looming, and he singled out inflation as the biggest challenge.
Inflation is forecast to peak at 7.75% by year’s end, before returning to 3.5% in 2023-24. Despite low unemployment currently at 3.75% it is tipped to rise to 4.5% by 2023-24, the surge in inflation means wages are unlikely to grow in real terms until 2024 at the earliest. Wages growth is forecast to be 3.75% in 2023-24, overtaking inflation of 3.5%.
With more interest rate hikes expected to tame inflation, debt is also set to climb from $895.3 billion last financial year to a forecast $927 billion in 2022-23 and upwards over the forward estimates.
With global economic headwinds building to gale force, Australia’s economic growth is expected to slow as cost-of-living pressures bite into household budgets.
While Dr Chalmers does not expect Australia to slide into recession like many of our trading partners, economic growth is already slowing. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to be 3.25% in 2022-23, down from 3.9% last financial year, and 1.5% in 2023-24, 1 percentage point lower than predicted in the March Budget.
Childcare and improved parental leave are a priority area for the new government, in an effort to support families, reduce cost-of-living pressures and improve women’s workforce participation.
Already, $4.7 billion has been earmarked for childcare over the next four years, with families earning less than $530,000 to receive extra childcare subsidies from 1 July 2023. An extension of paid parental leave from the current 18 weeks to 26 weeks is also set to be phased in from next July, so neither initiative will add to the current Budget.
Pressures on the federal health and aged care budget are mounting in the wake of COVID and an $8.8 billion blowout in the NDIS budget which will reach $166.4 billion over four years. An extra 380 staff will be hired at a cost of $158.2 million to speed up claims and make the system more efficient.
$750 million will be spent strengthening Medicare and $235 million over four years to roll out Urgent Care Clinics to reduce pressure on public hospitals.
Following revelations from the Aged Care Royal Commission and lessons learned during the pandemic, the government has pledged to fund an increase in aged care workers’ wages.
And the cost of subsidised prescription medications will be cut from $42.50 to $30 from January 1, at a cost of $756 million over four years.
A centrepiece of the Budget to improve housing affordability and chronic shortages is a new Housing Accord to build 1 million new houses in five years beginning in 2024.
The new $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund will provide a sustainable funding source to increase housing supply, including 20,000 new social housing dwellings, 4,000 of which will be allocated to women and children impacted by family and domestic violence and older women at risk of homelessness.
The plan paves the way for significant public and private investment in new housing across the country, following an historic agreement between the federal government, the states and private investors including superannuation funds.
Federal, state and territory governments have committed to a $1 billion one-year agreement to deliver 180,000 fee-free TAFE and community-based vocational education places from January 2023. Support will be targeted to priority groups, including First Nations people, and priority areas such as care sectors.
The government will also create 20,000 more subsidised university places over 2023 and 2024. The initiative will be targeted at disadvantaged groups to study courses where there are skills shortages.
As part of its budget review, the government will ‘’realign” $6.5 billion of existing infrastructure spending. It will spend $8.1 billion on key infrastructure projects including the Suburban Rail Loop East in Melbourne, the Bruce Highway and other important freight highways.
The government has also committed to at least $40 billion in new borrowing to set up funds and companies to invest in policy promises. These include the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Corporation to invest in the electricity grid, $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund for local manufacturing and the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund to invest in social housing.
In an acknowledgement of the increased frequency and severity of natural disaster, up to $200 million per year will be set aside for disaster prevention and resilience.
A more comprehensive approach to climate change is also back on the agenda, with total climate-related spending of $24.9 billion over 2022-23.
As many of the nation’s largest emitters are in regional areas, the government will establish a $1.9 billion Powering the Regions Fund to help transition regional industries to net zero. And $345 million will be made available to increase uptake of electric vehicles.
What’s not in the Budget is also important. There was little new spending to help retirees and welfare recipients, but pensions and payments will increase due to indexation.
As previously announced, the amount Age Pensioners can earn before they begin to lose pension entitlements will temporarily increase from $7,800 to $11,800 this financial year.
While most superannuation fund members will welcome the lack of tinkering to the super rules, the investment potential of the new affordable housing initiatives should provide a valuable source of income to super funds and their members.
The Treasurer pledged a record investment of $1.7 billion to support implementation of the new National Plan to End Violence Against Women and Children. This will include funding for 500 new frontline service and community workers to support women in crisis.
The Government is also legislating 10 days of paid family and domestic violence leave for all types of employees.
The next 12 months are likely to be challenging for the economy and for households trying to budget for rising prices and interest rates, including higher mortgage repayments, at a time when home values are falling and real wages are going backwards.
The Treasurer has tried to walk a fine line between budget repair and responsible spending with long-term economic benefits for individuals and the nation.
Coming just months after the federal election, this Budget should be seen as laying the groundwork for the three Budgets to follow.
Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2022-23 and Federal Budget Support documents.
If you have any questions about any of the Budget, don’t hesitate to call us on 03 5120 1400.
It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
In August, the focus was on US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole business gathering on August 26, and he was blunt. To hose down talk of interest rate cuts in 2023, he said the Fed was focused on bringing US inflation down to 2% (from 8.5% now), even at the risk of recession.
He said this will “take some time”, will likely require a “sustained period of below trend economic growth”, and households should expect “some pain” in the months ahead. The S&P500 share index promptly fell 3.4% and bond yields rose. Economists expect the US central bank will continue lifting rates each month for the remainder of 2022.
In Australia, economic conditions are less gloomy. Australia’s trade surplus was a record $136.4 billion in 2022-23. Unemployment fell to 3.4% in July while wages growth rose to an annual rate of 2.6% in the year to June, the strongest in 8 years but well below inflation. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose slightly in September to a still depressed 85.0 points while the NAB business confidence index jumped to +6.9 points in July, well above the long-term average of +5.4 points. Half-way through the June half-year reporting season, CommSec reports ASX200 company profits increased 56% in aggregate while dividends are 6% lower on a year earlier.
The Aussie dollar fell more than one cent over the month to close around US68.5c. Aussie shares bucked the global trend, finishing steady over the month.
If you wish to speak to an adviser about any information in relation to our articles, please get in contact via email.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
June was a big month in an eventful year for the local and global economy, with inflation and interest rates continuing to dominate. The US Federal Reserve lifted official rates by 0.75% to a target range of 1.50-1.75% to combat surging inflation of 8.6% in the year to May, stoking fears of a US recession.
Australia faces similar but less acute challenges. With inflation sitting at 5.1%, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.5% to 0.85% in June and Governor Philip Lowe hinted at more to come in July, which it did in the form of a further rate hike to bring the cash rate to 1.35%. Many economic analysts have predicted further rate rises to curb inflation with an expected cash rate to be somewhere in the three’s come Christmas time.
The Australian economy is still growing relatively strongly at an annual rate of 3.3%. Retail trade rose 10.4% in the year to May on the back of low unemployment and high household savings. Household wealth rose to a record high of $574,807 in the year to March, but since then there has been a global sell-off in shares, a slowdown in the Australian housing market and cost of living pressures are mounting.
Australia’s national average petrol price rose to 211.9c a litre in June, the second highest on record, on the back of a surge in global oil prices. Brent Crude rose almost 45% over the past year as the war in Ukraine disrupts supply. Despite a late bounce in shares, the ASX200 fell 9.6% in the year to June, while US shares were down more than 12%. The Aussie dollar lost ground over the financial year to finish below US69c.
If you wish to speak to an adviser about any information in relation to our articles, please get in contact via email.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Rising interest rates are almost always portrayed as bad news, by the media and by politicians of all persuasions. But a rise in rates cuts both ways.
Higher interest rates are a worry for people with home loans and borrowers generally. But they are good news for older Australians who depend on income from bank deposits and young people trying to save for a deposit on their first home.
Rising interest rates are also a sign of a growing economy, which creates jobs and provides the income people need to pay the mortgage and other bills. By lifting interest rates, the Reserve Bank hopes to keep a lid on inflation and rising prices. Yes, it’s complicated.
In early May, the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate for the first time since November 2010, from its historic low of 0.1 per cent. The reason the cash rate is watched so closely is that it flows through to mortgages and other lending rates in the economy.
To tackle the rising cost of living, the Reserve Bank expects to lift the cash rate further, to around 2.5 per cent.i Inflation is currently running at 5.1 per cent, which means annual wages growth of 2.4 per cent is not keeping pace with rising prices.ii
So what does this mean for household budgets?
The people most affected by rising rates are likely those who recently bought their first home. In a double whammy, after several years of booming house prices the size of the average mortgage has also increased.
According to CoreLogic, even though price growth is slowing, the median home value rose 16.7 per cent nationally in the year to April to $748,635. Prices are higher in Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne.
CoreLogic estimates a 1 per cent rise would add $486 a month to repayments on the median new home loan in Sydney, and an additional $1,006 a month for a 2 per cent rise.
While the big four banks are not obliged to pass on the cash rate changes, in May they passed on the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 per cent increase in the cash rate in full to their standard variable mortgage rates which range from 4.6 to 4.8 per cent. The lowest standard variable rates from smaller lenders are below 2 per cent.
Still, it’s believed most homeowners should be able to absorb a 2 per cent rise in their repayments.iii
The financial regulator, APRA now insists all lenders apply three percentage points on top of their headline borrowing rate, as a stress test on the amount you can borrow (up from 2.5 per cent prior to October 2021).iv
Whatever your circumstances, the shift from a low interest rate, low inflation economic environment to rising rates and inflation is a signal that it’s time to revisit some of your financial assumptions.
The first thing you need to do is update your budget to factor in higher loan repayments and the rising cost of essential items such as food, fuel, power, childcare, health and insurances. You could then look for easy cuts from your non-essential spending on things like regular takeaways, eating out and streaming services.
If you have a home loan, then potentially the biggest saving involves absolutely no sacrifice to your lifestyle. Simply pick up the phone and ask your lender to give you a better deal. Banks all offer lower rates to new customers than they do to existing customers, but you can often negotiate a lower rate simply by asking.
If your bank won’t budge, then consider switching lenders. Just the mention of switching can often land you a better rate with your existing lender.
Older Australians and young savers face a tougher task. Bank savings rates are generally non-negotiable, but it does pay to shop around.
The silver lining is that many people will also see increased interest rates on their savings accounts as the cash rate increases. By mid-May only three of the big four banks had increased rates for savings accounts. Several lenders also announced increased rates for term deposits of up to 0.6 per cent.v
High interest rates traditionally put a dampener on returns from shares and property, so commentators are warning investors to prepare for lower returns from these investments and superannuation.
That makes it more important than ever to ensure you are getting the best return on your savings and not paying more than necessary on your loans. If you would like to discuss a budgeting and savings plan, give us a call on 03 5120 1400.
i https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-gov-2022-05-03-q-and-a-transcript.html
ii https://www.abs.gov.au/
iii https://www.canstar.com.au/home-loans/banks-respond-cash-rate-increase/
iv https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-increases-banks
v https://www.ratecity.com.au/term-deposits/news/banks-increased-term-deposit-interest-rates
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
June has arrived and so has winter, as the financial year draws to a close. Now that the federal election is out of the way, it’s time to focus on planning for the future with more certainty.
Cost of living pressures, inflation and interest rates were major concerns in the lead-up to the May federal election. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted the cash rate for the first time in over 11 years from 0.1% to 0.35%, as inflation hit 5.1%. This followed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to lift rates by 50 basis points to 0.75-1.00%, the biggest rate hike in 22 years as inflation hit 8.5%. Global pressures are largely to blame, from war in Ukraine and rising oil prices to supply chain disruptions and food shortages. The price of Brent Crude surged a further 27% in May.
As a result, the RBA has cut its growth forecast for the year to June from 5% to 3.5% and raised its inflation forecast from 3.25% to 4.5%. On the ground, the economic news is mixed. New business investment fell 0.3% in the March quarter but still rose 4.5% on the year. The NAB business confidence index fell from +16.3 point to +9.9 points in April, still above its long-term average. Adding to inflationary pressures, labour and materials shortages and bad weather saw building costs rise 2.8% in the March quarter, while retail trade rose further in April to be up 9.6% over the year.
On the positive side, unemployment fell further from 4% to 3.9% in April, the lowest rate since 1974, while annual wages growth rose slightly in the March quarter from 2.3% to 2.4%, still well below inflation.
If you wish to speak to an adviser about any information in relation to our articles, please get in contact via email – moe@rgmgroup.com.au.
Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.