The challenges of market timing

When markets fall, it’s natural to want to take action to prevent further losses. Doing so however can do more harm than good. Here’s why timing the market to buy low and sell high is not as easy as it sounds.

If you’re invested in the financial markets and also keeping up with the news, you’re probably wondering if you should do anything to insulate your portfolio from incurring further losses alongside rising interest rates and inflation.

In times like these, reminding investors to “maintain discipline” and “stay the course” – in other words, stay invested and here’s why:

Reacting to the here and now

Most market commentary are about the events of the day, with a focus on the here and now. However, the ‘today’ is not as significant to financial markets as they’re generally forward looking and more concerned about what will happen in the future. Thus, using daily developments to make constant adjustments to your portfolio is unlikely to help you accumulate wealth over the long term as the market will have already priced it in.

Additionally, to successfully time the market, investors need to get all five of these investment factors right including precisely timing exit and re-entry – a near impossible feat for even the most experienced of investors.

Locking in your losses

When markets fall, it’s natural to want to sell riskier assets (i.e. equities) and move to cash or safer assets like government securities. But exiting the share market now means locking in your losses permanently and not giving your portfolio the opportunity to benefit when markets recover. Research found that 80 per cent of investors who panicked and moved to cash during the 2020 sell off would have been better off if they had stayed invested1.

Investing at the peak

While we all want to “buy low and sell high” so our portfolios can outperform the market average, in reality, it is extremely hard to execute perfectly every single time. Analysis of the last 5 decades reveals that even in the worst-case scenarios – where investors bought into the market at its peak, just before a dip – as long as investors stayed invested instead of moving to cash, they still benefited from positive annual returns of almost 11%.

If the recent market volatility is keeping you up at night, take a moment to reflect on whether your emotions are short-term reactions to the current conditions, or something you really need to act on. If you feel like you cannot stomach temporary losses, consider if your asset allocation is right for your overall investment goals and risk appetite.

A well-diversified core portfolio, aligned to your risk appetite will help spread your risk and afford you a margin of safety over the long term. Get this right and you will probably sleep better at night.

Contact us if you would like to discuss this further.

Source: Vanguard

1 https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/Cash-panickers-Coronavirus-market-volatility-US-CVMV_072020_online.pdf

Reproduced with permission of Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd

Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 / AFS Licence 227263) is the product issuer. We have not taken yours and your clients’ circumstances into account when preparing this material so it may not be applicable to the particular situation you are considering. You should consider your circumstances and our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Prospectus before making any investment decision. You can access our PDS or Prospectus online or by calling us. This material was prepared in good faith and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

© 2022 Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.

Important:
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

How to spot and stop financial abuse

Until recently, financial abuse was often kept secret, especially where it occurred within the family. Thankfully that’s changing with public awareness campaigns and help becoming more readily available.

The emotional and economic damage caused by financial abuse can be far reaching and devastating. A recent Australian report calculates that in 2020 alone, financial abuse victims lost $5.7 billion while the cost to the broader economy was $5.2 billion.i

Nearly one in 30 women and one in 50 men suffer financial abuse each year, according to the Deloitte Access Economics report The Cost of Financial Abuse in Australia, 2022. These figures are almost certainly an underestimate, the report adds.

There are no typical victims of financial abuse: those affected are of all ages and means. Sadly, the abuser is often a friend, carer, partner or family member.

What is financial abuse?

Financial abuse is when someone uses your money without your permission, prevents you from getting access to money or takes charge of your financial decisions.

These days, financial abuse is considered a form of domestic and family violence, taking away your independence and leaving you feeling vulnerable and anxious. Victims may also suffer physical violence and emotional abuse.

The most common type of financial abuse is withholding income or controlling how it is spent, according to the Deloitte report. But there are other forms of abuse that can be equally harmful such as making a partner liable for a joint debt, preventing someone from working, refusing to contribute to household expenses and refusing to contribute to the costs of raising a child.

Many victims also suffer flow-on effects of the abuse such as financial hardship and stress, leading to mental health issues. Some may also lose their home.

In some cases of family violence, one partner takes control of the couple’s finances, preventing the victim from leaving the relationship. In others, where the victim does manage to leave, the abuser may continue their abuse using tactics such as expensive legal action or disrupting the victim’s work or business.

Recognising the signs

Victims of financial abuse may not be aware of the abuse for some time, allowing perpetrators to empty bank accounts, deplete investments and incur large debts in the victim’s name.


The federal government agency, Services Australia says the warning signs include:

  • taking or using your money without your permission
  • not being allowed to work
  • having to account for how you spend your money
  • withholding financial information from you
  • spending any government payments you receive without your consent.ii

Incurring debts in your name is another form of financial abuse. Your partner may spend more than you agree on your credit card, pressure you into co-signing a loan with them, or take out a loan in your name, according to Australian Family Lawyers.iii They may also limit your educational opportunities by, for example, preventing you from enrolling in studies that could advance your career.

Older people and those living with disability can be particularly vulnerable to financial abuse if they rely on others for help and advice. Financial abusers may take money from their bank accounts or wallets, ask an older person to change their Will, take jewellery or other valuable items from their home, or take control of their decisions using a Power of Attorney when they are still capable of making their own decisions.

Where to go for help

If you or someone you know is suffering financial abuse, a number of free and confidential resources are available.

The MoneySmart website provides information about free legal advice at community legal centres or legal aid centres, and a number of suggestions if you need urgent help with money.

You can also find free and confidential counselling for family violence, abuse and sexual assault at: 1800RESPECT (24 hours a day, seven days a week)
1800 737 732

For crisis support, contact Lifeline (24 hours a day, seven days a week)
13 11 14

We understand that it can be difficult reaching out for support if you feel you or someone you love is being taken advantage of financially, especially if a family member is involved. Please call us if you would like a confidential discussion about safeguarding your finances.

i https://www.commbank.com.au

ii https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/what-family-and-domestic-violence?context=60033#a8

iii https://www.australianfamilylawyers.com.au/information-centre/signs-of-financial-abuse


Tax Alert March 2023

Family trust rules and new guidance on contractors

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has confirmed its position on family trust distributions, while also providing employers with new information to simplify completion of Single Touch Payroll (STP) activity statements. Here are some of the latest developments in the world of tax.

Prefilling of PAYGW

Completion of PAYG withholding via STP will become easier for employers when the ATO begins prefilling some of the required activity statement data.

From the July 2023 statement, PAYG withholding labels W1 and W2 will be prefilled for all monthly PAYG employers. Quarterly withholders will find the information on their September 2023 statement.

The ATO is also piloting an employer reminder system for businesses with a late activity statement and STP-reported PAYG withholding. If you fail to lodge by the reminder date, the ATO will consider there are no corrections to report and the recorded amounts will be added to your client account.

Final rules on family trusts

Taxpayers with family trusts should check the implications of the ATO’s final guidance on the taxation of family trust payments, as the new rules may reduce the attractiveness of these tax structures.

Under the ATO’s new approach, common tax planning strategies relying on the section 100A exemption covering trust distributions to companies and family members may no longer be available in some situations.

Taxpayers with a discretionary trust should discuss the implications with us, particularly where there are parent controllers of the trust and adult-aged child beneficiaries. The ATO website provides a number of case studies outlining common situations.

Employees vs. independent contractors

The ATO is consulting on its new draft guidance covering both classification of employees and independent contractors, and its proposed compliance approach in this area.

The draft guidance outlines the regulator’s priority areas, which include situations where particular risk factors are present and where an unpaid superannuation query has been received from a worker.

The guidance also indicates employers must have specific advice from an appropriately qualified third-party confirming their classification of a worker as a contractor is correct.

Recordkeeping for self-education expenses eased

Taxpayers claiming self-education expenses will find things a little easier this tax time, as new legislation has removed the requirement to exclude the first $250 of deductions for education courses.

The new rules can be used when completing your 2022-23 tax return, while for employers, the change applies to the Fringe Benefits Tax year starting 1 April 2023.

Sharing economy reporting extended

Providers of ride-sourcing and short-term accommodation services will find themselves swept into the compulsory Taxable Payments Reporting System (TPRS) from 1 July 2023.

Electronic platform operators for these services (such as Uber and Airbnb) are required to report all transactions involving Australian purchasers under new legislation passed in December 2022.

Annual TPRS reporting is already compulsory in industries such as building and construction, cleaning, courier and security services.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to face FBT

Under rules applying from 1 April 2025, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will no longer be considered zero or low emissions vehicles and will not be eligible for the fringe benefits tax exemption applying to these vehicles.

You can apply for the exemption if the hybrid vehicle was exempt before 1 April 2025 and there is a financially binding commitment to continue providing private use of the vehicle after this date.

No business activity could mean no ABN

The ATO is again reminding small businesses their Australian Business Number (ABN) may be flagged for cancellation if there is no reported business activity in their tax return, or no signs of business activity in other lodgements or third-party information.

If an ABN is identified as inactive, the ATO will contact the holder by email, SMS or mail to check if the ABN is still required and explain the action required to keep it. Where the business is no longer operating, the ABN will be cancelled.

Source: Vanguard

1 https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/Cash-panickers-Coronavirus-market-volatility-US-CVMV_072020_online.pdf

Reproduced with permission of Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd

Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 / AFS Licence 227263) is the product issuer. We have not taken yours and your clients’ circumstances into account when preparing this material so it may not be applicable to the particular situation you are considering. You should consider your circumstances and our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Prospectus before making any investment decision. You can access our PDS or Prospectus online or by calling us. This material was prepared in good faith and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

© 2022 Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.

Important:
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.