Inflation – what to know and what to do

Rising inflation brings about concern for many, but Vanguard’s time-tested investment philosophy—and a long-term focus—can help any investor navigate choppy waters.

What is inflation?

Inflation happens when prices rise and purchasing power decreases. This can be the result of a simultaneous high demand for and low supply of goods and services. Consumers have money and want to spend it, but since not enough goods are being produced, prices move skyward.

How has inflation affected the markets?

Inflation has been historically low for most of the last 40 years, so the level of inflation we’re experiencing now is unsettling. When inflation increases, interest rates tend to rise, which can cause both bond and share prices to fluctuate. This can be especially challenging for companies as they plan capital expenditures, budgets, and payrolls. For many investors, this could be their first experience with inflation and they may be wondering how to proceed.

When should I make a portfolio adjustment during high inflation?

In this inflationary environment, as with any period of high uncertainty, investors should reflect on their goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. If you determine that you need to make a change after that analysis, you should consider it carefully before making any sweeping changes (such as switching all your investments to cash). It’s important to put what’s going on into perspective and decide if it truly warrants an adjustment to your portfolio. Oftentimes, a moderate change will suffice. A diversified portfolio will give you the best chance at increasing purchasing power over the long run.

If you don’t think your portfolio needs any modifications but you still want to hedge against inflation risk, you can make spending adjustments. Reducing spending during periods of high inflation can help make your investments last, but won’t feel like a permanent change; you can always increase, decrease, or maintain your spending level, depending on your situation and the market environment.

When should I NOT make a portfolio adjustment during high inflation?

Don’t make adjustments to your portfolio in haste. It’s crucial that you take time to think about what makes the most sense for you and your long-term needs. Even if your risk tolerance has changed, your asset allocation shouldn’t change that much. We also discourage spontaneous changes based on hearsay; just because someone on the news or online makes a recommendation doesn’t mean it’s right for your portfolio.

Instead of veering to avoid bumps in the road, we recommend you stay the course and focus on your long-term goals – your future will thank you for it.

Speak to us today if you would like to discuss how inflation may impact your portfolio.

Source: Vanguard

Reproduced with permission of Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd

Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 / AFS Licence 227263) is the product issuer. We have not taken yours and your clients’ circumstances into account when preparing this material so it may not be applicable to the particular situation you are considering. You should consider your circumstances and our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Prospectus before making any investment decision. You can access our PDS or Prospectus online or by calling us. This material was prepared in good faith and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

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Your investing style – as unique as you

As interest rates start to increase after a lengthy period of historical lows, it’s a good time to think about how your money is working for you and whether your investing style and strategy is still in line with your goals.

Higher interest rates don’t just send a ripple through the economy, aside from the obvious impact on the property market, they often impact stock prices. There are a myriad of other factors that contribute to market movement and portfolio performance and trying to navigate all the things that need to be considered can be challenging but being aware of your preferred investment style and having a considered and appropriate strategy can help.

The benefits of style and strategy

Just as we are all unique individuals, our goals and approach to investing will also be different to our family and friends and it pays to be familiar with your own style and preferences.

It can be common for those new to investing to take the plunge without any real plan, let alone an investment strategy that’s likely to align with their current circumstances, future requirements, and investment goals.

Even those who have been investing for some time can be guilty of a ‘set and forget’ approach that might mean hanging on to a strategy that does not meet their present or future needs.

Having the right investment strategy – the one that’s right for you – improves the likelihood of your investments meeting your goals and allows you to sleep at night.

Your tolerance for risk at the core of your style

While approaches to, and styles of investing are many and varied, your comfort with risk is often the primary driver of any approach you may choose to take. There is of course a trade-off between risk and return that needs to also be considered. Your comfort with risk will determine the right mix of asset classes in your portfolio.

An aggressive investor, commonly someone with higher risk tolerance, is willing to take on greater risk for the possibility of better returns than a conservative investor. This type of investor will be comfortable with a higher proportion of growth assets like shares or listed property that offer higher returns over the long-term that may come at the expense of less stable returns.

A conservative investor will employ a larger proportion of defensive assets in their portfolio to provide long-term stable returns with lower volatility and exposure to risk. Defensive assets are fixed interest investment options including fixed income bonds and cash investment options.

Hands-on vs hands-off approach

Investing strategies can be further separated into two distinct groups: active and passive. Passive investing, as the name implies, focuses on benefitting from the overall increase in market prices over time. One of the benefits of passive investing is that it minimises the mistakes investors can make when they react emotionally to stock market movement.

Active investing involves a more hands-on approach, with more frequent buying and selling to take advantage of short-term price fluctuations and is generally undertaken by a portfolio manager.

Changing your strategy over time

Most investors find that their investment style shifts as they age. Younger investors have a longer time horizon, so they may feel more comfortable making riskier investments as they have time for the market to recover from market falls. Mature investors may be more focused on preserving their savings for retirement, so they may be more interested in diversification and dollar-cost averaging.

For investors nearing or at retirement, a shift from asset growth and capital gains to a focus on income may be something worth considering and is often desired. The advantage of an income focussed strategy is that investments can produce some of the cash flows needed when you’re no longer working. Dividend stocks are a common way to achieve this goal, with companies showing stable and growing dividends providing the most value.

To ensure you are employing the right strategy to meet your objectives, it pays to be aware of your options and revisit your comfort with risk and your overall investment goals. We can ensure your investment portfolio meets both these elements throughout your various life stages.

If you are interested in exploring the options available to you, please get in touch via our contact page or contact us on 03 5120 1400. We can work closely with you to review your strategy or if you are new to investing, find the right mix for your unique circumstances.

Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

How to calm those market jitters

It’s been a rocky start to the year on world markets but that doesn’t mean you should hit the panic button. Staying the course is generally the best course, but that’s easier said than done when there’s a big market fall.

In January markets plunged some 10 per cent but then staged a recovery. That volatile start may well be an indication of how the year pans out.i

The key reasons for this volatility are fear of inflation, the prospect of rising interest rates and pressure on corporate profits. Add to that ongoing concern surrounding COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is hardly surprising markets are jittery.

But fear and the inevitable corrections in share prices that come with it are all a normal part of market action.

Downward pressures

Rising interest rates and inflation traditionally lead to downward pressure on shares as the improved returns from fixed interest investments start to make them look more attractive. However, it’s worth noting that inflation in Australia is nowhere near the levels in the US where inflation is at a 40-year high of 7.5 per cent. In fact, the Reserve Bank forecasts underlying inflation to grow to just 3.25 per cent in 2022 before dropping to 2.75 per cent next year.ii

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe concedes interest rates may start to rise this year, with many market analysts looking at August. Even so, he doesn’t believe rates will climb higher than 1.5 to 2 per cent. After all, with the size of mortgages growing in line with rising property prices and high household debt to income levels, rates would not have to rise much to have an impact on household finances and spending.iii

Even with rate hikes on the cards, yields on deposits are likely to remain under 1 per cent for the foreseeable future compared with a grossed-up return (after including franking credits) from share dividends of about 5 per cent.iv

The old adage goes that it’s “time in” the market that counts, not “timing” the market. So if you rush to sell stocks because you fear they may fall further, you risk not only turning a paper loss into a real one, but you also risk missing the rebound in prices later on.

Over time, short-term losses tend to iron out. Growth assets such as shares offer higher returns in the long run with higher risk of volatility along the way. The important thing is to have an investment strategy that allows you to sleep at night and stay the course.

Chance to review

A downturn in the market can also present an opportunity to review your portfolio and make sure that it truly reflects your risk profile. Years of bullish performances on sharemarkets may have encouraged some people to take more risks than their profile would normally dictate.

After many years of strong market returns, it’s possible that your portfolio mix is no longer aligned with your investment strategy. You may also want to make sure you are sufficiently diversified across the asset classes to put yourself in the best position for current and future market conditions.

A recent study found that retirees generally have a low tolerance for losses in their retirement savings. Retirees often favour conservative investments to avoid experiencing downturns, but this means they may lose out on strong returns and capital growth when the market rebounds.

Think long term

Over the long term, shares tend to outperform all other asset classes. And even when share prices fall, you are still earning dividends from those shares. Indeed, the lower the price, the higher the yield on your share investments. And it is also worth noting that with Australia’s dividend imputation system, there are also tax advantages with share investments.

For long-term investors, rather than sell your shares in a kneejerk reaction, it might be worthwhile considering buying stocks at lower prices. This allows you to take advantage of dollar cost averaging, by lowering the average price you pay for a particular company’s shares.

Investments are generally for the long term, especially when it comes to your super. Chopping and changing investments in response to short-term market movements is unlikely to deliver the end results you initially planned.

If the current turbulence in world markets has unsettled you, call us on 03 5120 1400 to discuss your investment strategy and whether it still reflects your risk profile and long-term objectives.

i https://tradingeconomics.com/stocks

ii https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-02/rba-governor-philip-lowe-press-club-address/100798394

iii https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/february/the-rba-ends-bond-buying-but-remains-patient-on-rates-we-expect-the-first-rate-hike-in-august?csid=1135474712While

iv https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/february/the-rba-ends-bond-buying-but-remains-patient-on-rates-we-expect-the-first-rate-hike-in-august?csid=1135474712While

Material contained in this publication is a summary only and is based on information believed to be reliable and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.



A helping hand onto the property ladder

Buying your first home is always a big step, but with property prices rising faster than pay packets taking that first step seems more challenging than ever.

National house prices rose 20 per cent in the year to September, the fastest growth since 1989. Higher prices have also fanned out from capital cities to the regions, as city folk discover the country lifestyle and cheaper housing during the pandemic.i

While this is great news for homeowners and investors, it’s putting home ownership further out of reach for many hopeful first home buyers. The combination of rapid price growth and weak wages growth have pushed up the cost of an average first home deposit from 70 per cent of income to more than 80 per cent.ii

And in another blow to first home buyers, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has told lenders to assess whether new borrowers can afford their loan at an interest rate at least 3 percentage points higher than the current rate on their home loan. Previously, banks used a 2.5 per cent buffer.iii

So what strategies are available to help younger Australians get a foot on the property ladder?

Government supports

In recent years, the federal government has launched three schemes to close the deposit gap for first home buyers.

The First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS) and the New Home Guarantee (NHG) allow eligible first home buyers to purchase a home with a deposit of as little as 5 per cent. While the Family Home Guarantee helps eligible single parents buy a home with an even lower deposit of at least two per cent.

Another way for first home buyers to build a deposit is to contribute voluntary savings to your super account and withdraw up to $30,000 plus investment earnings when you are ready to buy. The First Home Super Saver scheme takes advantage of the low tax super environment and investment returns that have consistently outpaced bank savings accounts.

Rentvesting

If you can’t afford to buy your dream home in a suburb or location you like, “rentvesting” may be worth exploring.

Rentvesting is where you buy property in a location you can afford with good rental yields and capital growth prospects and lease it out, while renting in an area you prefer. Or live with your parents for minimal rent and pay off the mortgage on your rental property even faster.

You can also claim a tax deduction for allowable expenses, depreciation, and interest on the loan for your investment property. The downside is you will be liable for capital gains tax when you sell.

Alternatively, under the six-year rule if you buy and live in the property for at least six months before you rent it out, you will be exempt from capital gains tax on the growth of your investment for up to six years.

Bank of Mum and Dad

It’s not just younger Australians who worry about housing affordability. Their parents often worry just as much. So much so that recent research found the Bank of Mum and Dad is the nation’s ninth biggest mortgage lender.

According to research by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA), 60 per cent of first home buyers are getting help from their parents.iv Parents typically do this by giving their children cash towards the deposit or by going guarantor for the loan.

DFA found the average parental contribution was $92,000, indicating parents may be choosing to help with the deposit. Not only are banks reluctant to lend to first time buyers with less than a 20 per cent deposit, but any less means borrowers must pay lenders mortgage insurance.

Going guarantor

Parents without cash to spare sometimes agree to guarantee their child’s loan by using the equity in their own home as security. This can have the advantage of helping children get into the market sooner, but there are risks.

If the borrower can’t make repayments the guarantor is responsible for the debt, putting their home at risk. To limit this risk, you can choose to guarantee a portion of the loan, so you are only liable for that portion if the borrower defaults. You can also arrange to be released from the loan once the borrower builds up the same portion of equity in their home.

Saving for a first home is a challenge in the current market, but there are strategies to help make your dream a reality. So get in touch if you would like to discuss your options.

i https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2021-09/211001_CoreLogic_HomeValueIndex_Oct21_FINAL.pdf

ii https://theconversation.com/as-home-prices-soar-beyond-reach-we-have-a-government-inquiry-almost-designed-not-to-tell-us-why-168959

iii https://www.apra.gov.au/strengthening-residential-mortgage-lending-assessments

iv https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/we-need-to-talk-about-the-rise-of-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad

and received from sources within the market. It is not the intention of RGM Financial Planners Pty Ltd ABN 36 419 582 Australian Financial Services Licence Number 229471, RGM Accountants & Advisors Pty Ltd ABN 69 528 723 510 that this publication be used as the primary source of readers’ information but as an adjunct to their own resources and training. No representation is given, warranty made or responsibility taken as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any information or recommendation contained in this publication and RGM and its related bodies corporate will not be liable to the reader in contract or tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising as a result of the reader relying on any such information or recommendation (except in so far as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.